Panel vintageSeptember 1, 202653 synthetic assetsDemonstration data — no real listings, no addresses
Parcel
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Phoenix metro · panel as of September 1, 2026

The mortgage costs 5.84% of the price. 44 of 53 assets earn less than that.

At 6.75% over 30 years and 25% down, debt service eats 5.84% of the purchase price every year. A building has to out-earn that before a dollar of cash flow survives the loan. That single line decides more Phoenix deals than the median price does, and it is the line most screens never draw.

Median asking price

$438,000

−1.8% YoY

Median list price, active panel

Active inventory

2,486

+9.4% YoY

Standing listings, month end

Median asking rent

$1,985

+1.4% YoY

Asking rent, 3-bed single-family

Median ask / sq ft

$271

−0.9% YoY

Median ask ÷ finished area

Open the screener (53)How every number is computed

Press ⌘K to jump to any asset, submarket or metric.

Level 01 — Market

Where the metro sits

Twenty-four months of Maricopa County residential asking data. Price and rent are the two lines that decide a yield; inventory and new supply decide what you can negotiate. There are no sale prices and no days-on-market series here — those describe transactions, and every transaction on a demonstration site would be invented. Hover a chart, or tab into it and use the arrow keys.

Median asking price

Median list price across the active residential panel at each month end. Asking, not closing: nothing here claims a sale happened.

Median asking rent, three-bedroom single-family

Asking rent, not signed rent. A slower market shows up in concessions before it shows up here.

Months of inventory

Standing inventory over the trailing three-month absorption rate. Under about three months a seller sets the terms; over about six a buyer does.

New listings added each month

The supply side of the same picture. Inventory is a level; this is the flow that fills it, and the two move about four months apart.

Inventory is +9.4% against a year ago while the median ask has moved −1.8% and asking rent +1.4%. That combination is a buyer's negotiating position and a thin going-in yield at the same time. Both are on this page. Active inventory divided by the trailing three-month absorption rate of the synthetic panel.

Level 02 — Submarket

The metro is four different markets

A metro median hides a five-point spread in year-over-year price and a 155-listing spread in standing inventory. These four are the corners of that spread. Move a pointer across a card and the grid, the plot and the labels separate onto three planes — the chart is exploded, not decorated.

Tempe South — median ask

$468,000

+2.2% YoY

87 active · median rent $2,260

East Mesa — median ask

$389,000

−2.1% YoY

231 active · median rent $1,970

Alhambra — median ask

$358,000

−1.1% YoY

166 active · median rent $1,840

Buckeye — median ask

$366,000

−3.4% YoY

242 active · median rent $1,930

Fifteen submarkets, ordered by panel cap rate

Turn the drum. Each card carries the median asking price, the median asking rent, the standing inventory and the cap rate the panel assets in that submarket compute to under the baseline assumptions.

01 / 15

Alhambra

Phoenix

5.54% panel cap

Median ask
$358,000
Median rent
$1,840
Active
166
Panel rows
5

Mixed 1950s–70s single-family with pockets of legacy small multifamily. Short commute to the central employment core; a large share of the fourplex stock in this panel sits here.

02 / 15

West Mesa

Mesa

5.45% panel cap

Median ask
$349,000
Median rent
$1,790
Active
205
Panel rows
4

Older single-family with meaningful legacy multifamily. Property tax rate is materially below the City of Phoenix rows in this panel.

03 / 15

Glendale Central

Glendale

5.42% panel cap

Median ask
$364,000
Median rent
$1,855
Active
158
Panel rows
6

Mixed-vintage single-family plus the panel’s densest concentration of duplex and triplex parcels. Zoning permits the small-multifamily product that dominates this row.

04 / 15

Peoria South

Peoria

4.71% panel cap

Median ask
$405,000
Median rent
$2,040
Active
129
Panel rows
3

1980s–2000s tract with a high share of pool properties, which raises both the insurance and the maintenance line relative to the panel median.

05 / 15

Maryvale

Phoenix

4.42% panel cap

Median ask
$341,000
Median rent
$1,795
Active
214
Panel rows
5

Post-war tract stock on large flat lots. Deep rental depth, oldest mechanical systems in the panel — HVAC and sewer line age drive most of the CapEx variance here.

06 / 15

Sunnyslope

Phoenix

4.34% panel cap

Median ask
$396,000
Median rent
$1,935
Active
121
Panel rows
3

Hillside lots north of the canal, irregular parcel geometry. Wide dispersion in condition — the median masks a genuinely bimodal set.

07 / 15

Encanto

Phoenix

4.18% panel cap

Median ask
$512,000
Median rent
$2,340
Active
98
Panel rows
3

Pre-war and mid-century inventory close to the central core. Highest price per square foot in the panel; cap rates compress accordingly.

08 / 15

South Mountain

Phoenix

3.78% panel cap

Median ask
$372,000
Median rent
$1,880
Active
183
Panel rows
3

Large-lot 1960s–90s stock. Lot size is the main driver of value dispersion here; several parcels in the panel exceed 10,000 sq ft.

09 / 15

Avondale

Avondale

3.73% panel cap

Median ask
$379,000
Median rent
$1,990
Active
187
Panel rows
3

West-valley tract, much of it delivered after 2005. Heavy new-build competition on the rental side; concession risk is the live variable here.

10 / 15

Laveen

Phoenix

3.66% panel cap

Median ask
$418,000
Median rent
$2,085
Active
196
Panel rows
4

Late-2000s and newer master-planned tract. Near-universal HOA. Newest mechanicals in the panel, which shows up as a low CapEx reserve requirement.

11 / 15

Buckeye

Buckeye

3.62% panel cap

Median ask
$366,000
Median rent
$1,930
Active
242
Panel rows
3

Far-west growth edge. Newest stock and the highest inventory in the panel; also the row where long-run water-allocation risk is most worth pricing.

12 / 15

Deer Valley

Phoenix

3.51% panel cap

Median ask
$452,000
Median rent
$2,180
Active
143
Panel rows
3

North-corridor 1990s–2000s tract adjacent to the airport and industrial employment. Consistent rent depth; low vacancy in the demo panel.

13 / 15

East Mesa

Mesa

3.49% panel cap

Median ask
$389,000
Median rent
$1,970
Active
231
Panel rows
3

Broad 1980s–2000s tract carrying the highest standing inventory in the panel. Supply, not condition, is what sets the price here — the stock itself is unremarkable.

14 / 15

Chandler West

Chandler

3.29% panel cap

Median ask
$486,000
Median rent
$2,310
Active
112
Panel rows
3

Late-1990s onward tract adjacent to semiconductor and data-centre employment. Strong rent depth, thin yields — a total-return rather than a cash-flow row.

15 / 15

Tempe South

Tempe

3.28% panel cap

Median ask
$468,000
Median rent
$2,260
Active
87
Panel rows
2

Supply-constrained infill; the city is effectively built out, so new supply is redevelopment only. The tightest standing inventory in the panel, and the thinnest yields.

All 15 submarket panels →

Level 03 — Property

53 assets. 10 cover their own debt.

Every row is underwritten on one fixed assumption set so the column means the same thing all the way down: 25% down at 6.75% over 30 years, 6% vacancy, 20% of effective gross to maintenance, management and reserves. 9 of the 53 produce positive monthly cash flow on those terms. Here are the eight best-yielding.

Highest estimated cap rate in the panel, baseline assumptions
AssetSubmarketTypeAskRentCapCoCDSCRCash flow
WMS-03West MesaFourplex$552,000$5,3207.33%5.42%1.26$685
ALH-03AlhambraFourplex$512,000$4,8207.02%4.30%1.20$505
PRS-03Peoria SouthFourplex$612,000$5,4806.71%3.18%1.15$446
ALH-05AlhambraFourplex$674,000$5,9406.67%3.03%1.14$468
GLC-04Glendale CentralFourplex$706,000$6,1806.66%3.01%1.14$486
ENC-03EncantoMultifamily$955,000$8,4006.60%2.77%1.13$607
GLC-06Glendale CentralMultifamily$1,035,000$8,9606.33%1.78%1.08$423
WMS-04West MesaDuplex$372,000$2,9806.08%0.90%1.04$76

Screen all 53 on ask, cap rate, cash-on-cash and rent-to-price →

Estimates on synthetic data. Assets carry a panel code and a submarket, never an address — see the notes at the foot of the page.

Level 04 — Unit economics

One asset, taken apart

GLC-04 — Fourplex, 4 doors, Glendale Central. Gross scheduled income of $74,160 becomes $5,836 of pre-tax cash flow. Everything between the two is an assumption you can change. Each plane below is one of those steps; the gap between the front plane and the back one is what survives.

Income bridge — GLC-04

Annual, at the baseline assumption set. Operating expenses never include debt service; that is the last plane, and it is what separates the cap rate from the cash-on-cash.

  • Gross scheduled income — rent at full occupancy$74,160
  • Vacancy & credit loss — 6% of GSI−$4,450
  • Fixed operating — taxes, insurance, HOA, owner-paid−$8,720
  • Variable operating — maintenance, management, reserve−$13,942
  • Debt service — 6.75% / 30yr−$41,212
  • Pre-tax cash flow — what is left$5,836

Worked examples

Four scenarios, computed not claimed

Not case studies and not testimonials. Nobody bought these. Each card states its inputs — purchase, rehab, closing, stabilised rent, the fixed operating lines — and every figure under them is computed from those inputs by the same model that runs the screener. There are no buyer names and no quotes here, because a made-up person saying a made-up thing is not evidence of anything.

Unit turns on a legacy fourplex

Fourplex, four 2/1 units · Alhambra, Phoenix

Value-add, small multifamily
Purchase
$498,000
Rehab
$62,000
Closing at 2.5%
$12,450
Stabilised rent / mo
$4,820
Vacancy assumption
8%
Computed figures for the Unit turns on a legacy fourplex scenario
All-in basis$572,450
Cash invested$198,950
NOI / yr$34,910
Cap rate at stabilisation7.01%
Cash-on-cash2.94%
DSCR1.20

Where a first year of return would come from

  • Cash flow$5,840(money)
  • Amortisation$3,981(money)
  • Appreciation mark$9,960(not money)

Four small doors carry four sets of turnover costs and one set of fixed expenses. That is the trade the whole small-multifamily case rests on: the expense ratio is worse than a house and the income is far harder to lose all at once.

Most likely to be wrong: The 8% vacancy assumption. One-bedroom units re-lease quickly but turn often; at 12% this example stops clearing its debt service.

Rehab, let, refinance

Single-family, 4/2, 1,780 sq ft · Laveen, Phoenix

Buy, rehab, refinance
Purchase
$296,000
Rehab
$48,500
Closing at 2.5%
$7,400
Stabilised rent / mo
$2,290
Vacancy assumption
6%
Computed figures for the Rehab, let, refinance scenario
All-in basis$351,900
Cash invested$129,900
NOI / yr$15,759
Cap rate at stabilisation5.32%
Cash-on-cash-1.17%
DSCR0.91

Where a first year of return would come from

  • Cash flow-$1,520(money)
  • Amortisation$2,366(money)
  • Appreciation mark$4,440(not money)

The refinance is not modelled here, and that is deliberate. What the model can say is what the asset earns once it is let. What it cannot say is what an appraiser will decide the finished house is worth — so the plan that depends on that number is the plan that carries the risk.

Most likely to be wrong: The rehab budget. At $48,500 this example works; every $10,000 over adds roughly 0.7 points to the cash invested and takes the cash-on-cash below 2%.

The same money, a house or a duplex

Duplex, two 2/1 units · West Mesa

Stabilised, small multifamily
Purchase
$358,000
Rehab
$14,000
Closing at 2.5%
$8,950
Stabilised rent / mo
$2,980
Vacancy assumption
7%
Computed figures for the The same money, a house or a duplex scenario
All-in basis$380,950
Cash invested$112,450
NOI / yr$21,465
Cap rate at stabilisation6.00%
Cash-on-cash0.50%
DSCR1.03

Where a first year of return would come from

  • Cash flow$568(money)
  • Amortisation$2,862(money)
  • Appreciation mark$5,370(not money)

A duplex at this price collects roughly a third more rent than a single house at the same price and spends most of that difference on owner-paid water, a second set of appliances and a worse expense ratio. What survives is the point of the exercise — and it is smaller than the rent difference suggests.

Most likely to be wrong: Owner-paid water. It is carried at $900 a year here; on an unmetered 1970s system a hot summer can double it.

What sub-metering is actually worth

Eight 1/1 units, 1976 vintage · Glendale Central

Operating change, small multifamily
Purchase
$1,035,000
Rehab
$118,000
Closing at 2.5%
$25,875
Stabilised rent / mo
$8,960
Vacancy assumption
8%
Computed figures for the What sub-metering is actually worth scenario
All-in basis$1,178,875
Cash invested$402,625
NOI / yr$63,775
Cap rate at stabilisation6.16%
Cash-on-cash0.83%
DSCR1.06

Where a first year of return would come from

  • Cash flow$3,358(money)
  • Amortisation$8,273(money)
  • Appreciation mark$15,525(not money)

Owner-paid water on eight doors is the largest controllable line in this example. Cutting it by a third is worth more to the net operating income than a $50 rent increase on every unit — and unlike the rent increase, it does not depend on the market agreeing.

Most likely to be wrong: That the saving holds. Sub-metering changes behaviour in year one; the year-three consumption is the number nobody has.

Read all four in full →

Bring us a parcel number and an assumption set.

We will return the same six figures you see on this site, sourced, with every assumption named. If the answer is no, you get that in writing too — that is most of what the desk does.

Contact the desk(602) 555-0148