Panel vintageSeptember 1, 202653 synthetic assetsDemonstration data — no real listings, no addresses
Parcel
Contact the desk

STM-01

South Mountain · Phoenix, AZ 85042 · Single-family

ActiveSingle-familyBuilt 1985
Asking
$384,000
Est. rent / mo
$2,240
Est. cap rate
4.13%
Est. cash-on-cash
-6.20%
Est. DSCR
0.71
Rent / price
0.583%
$ / sq ft
$220
Est. cash flow / mo
-$546

At the baseline set: 25% down, 6.75%, 30-year amortisation. Estimates.

Representative stock photograph — single-storey stucco ranch elevation with a gravel front yard. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.
Representative stock photograph — renovated kitchen with quartz counters and vinyl plank flooring. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.
Representative stock photograph — vacant living area with vinyl plank flooring and a slider to the patio. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.
Representative stock photograph — renovated bathroom with a tiled tub surround. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.
Representative stock photograph — exterior condenser units on a gravel pad. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.

Representative stock photography of Phoenix-metro residential product. These are not photographs of this asset — there is no such asset. This panel publishes a code and a submarket and nothing finer, because a plausible house number on a real street is a real house, and putting an invented price under a photograph of one is the thing this whole demonstration exists to avoid.

The read

Lot size is the story: 10,454 sq ft with an RV gate on a corner. Detached-unit potential under the current accessory-dwelling ordinance.

  • Quarter-acre lot
  • RV gate and slab
  • Covered patio
  • No HOA

Facts

Physical
Property typeSingle-family
Units1
Bedrooms / bathrooms4 / 2
Living area1,745 sq ft
Lot10,454 sq ft
Year built1985 (41 yrs)
Stories1
Parking2-car garage
Panel codeSTM-01
LocationSouth Mountain, Phoenix 85042
Carry — estimated
Property tax / yr$2,230
Insurance / yr$1,760
HOA / moNone
Other fixed / yr$360
Total est. operating / yr$9,403
HVAC installed2020
Roof installed2017
Water providerCity of Phoenix
FEMA flood zoneZone X

Underwrite it

Every figure below recomputes as you move an input. Nothing is rounded until it is printed, and operating expenses never include debt service — that separation is what makes the cap rate a property of the building and the cash-on-cash a property of your deal. All outputs are estimates.

Purchase & financing
Income
Operating expenses

Monthly cash flow

−$546

after debt service, before tax

Cap rate

4.13%

NOI ÷ purchase price

Cash-on-cash

-6.20%

cash flow ÷ cash invested

DSCR

0.71

NOI ÷ annual debt service

Where the gross rent goes

  • Vacancy$1,613
  • Operating$9,403
  • Debt service$22,416
  • Cash flow$0
Annual income statement — estimated
Gross scheduled income$26,880
Less vacancy & credit loss−$1,613
Effective gross income$25,267
Less fixed operating−$4,350
Less variable operating−$5,053
Net operating income$15,864
Less annual debt service−$22,416
Pre-tax cash flow-$6,552
Loan amount$288,000
Monthly principal & interest$1,868
Cash invested$105,600
Operating expense ratio37.2%
Break-even occupancy118.4%
Gross rent multiplier14.3
Rent-to-price ratio0.583%

Estimated figures produced by a model from the assumptions on the left. Not an offer, an appraisal, a loan quote or investment advice. Taxes, insurance and operating expenses are estimates; verify each before you commit capital.

What it would have to cost

The asking price against three solved thresholds

Rent and every operating line held exactly as stated; only the purchase price moves. Each mark is the price that solves one condition. Nothing here is a price history: this asset has none, and inventing one would be the easiest dishonest thing on the page.

Solved prices, holding rent and operating expenses fixed. At the asking price this asset computes to a 4.13% cap rate, -6.20% cash-on-cash and a DSCR of 0.71.
ConditionPricevs askWhat it means
Current asking price$384,000—The number on the panel. Everything below is measured against it.
DSCR 1.00$272,000−29.2%net operating income exactly covers the mortgage; cash flow is zero
Submarket median cap (4.13%)$384,000+0.0%the price at which this asset yields what its submarket already yields
Leverage turns (5.84%)$272,000−29.2%above this cap rate the loan adds to the return instead of subtracting from it

Asking price carried on the submarket index

The current asking price projected backwards on the South Mountain median-price index. Arithmetic on two synthetic series — not an appraisal, not a price history and not a record of any transaction.

Comparables

Rent is compared per unit, which is the only fair basis across a house and a fourplex. The subject sits 2.4% below the median of its five closest comparables.

Monthly rent per unit

Drawn from the panel itself, ranked by product family, unit size, bedroom count and proximity at the resolution this data has: same submarket, then same city.

  • STM-01Subjectsubject · 4/2 · 1,745 sq ft/unit
    $2,240
  • STM-02Same submarket · 3/2 · 1,610 sq ft/unit
    $2,180
  • MRV-03Same city · 4/2 · 1,608 sq ft/unit
    $2,295
  • DVY-01Same city · 4/2 · 1,960 sq ft/unit
    $2,420
  • STM-03Same submarket · 3/2 · 1,355 sq ft/unit
    $1,990
  • LVN-01Same city · 4/3 · 2,185 sq ft/unit
    $2,395
Table
Monthly rent per unit — full data. Drawn from the panel itself, ranked by product family, unit size, bedroom count and proximity at the resolution this data has: same submarket, then same city.
ComparableDetailRent / unit / mo
STM-01 (subject)subject · 4/2 · 1,745 sq ft/unit$2,240
STM-02Same submarket · 3/2 · 1,610 sq ft/unit$2,180
MRV-03Same city · 4/2 · 1,608 sq ft/unit$2,295
DVY-01Same city · 4/2 · 1,960 sq ft/unit$2,420
STM-03Same submarket · 3/2 · 1,355 sq ft/unit$1,990
LVN-01Same city · 4/3 · 2,185 sq ft/unit$2,395
Price comparables — 4 nearest assets of the same product type
AssetSubmarketProximityAskSq ft$ / sq ft
STM-01 SubjectSouth Mountain—$384,0001,745$220
STM-03South MountainSame submarket$336,0001,355$248
STM-02South MountainSame submarket$429,0001,610$266
MRV-05MaryvaleSame city$322,0001,460$221
LVN-03LaveenSame city$396,0001,780$222

Sensitivity

What a five-percent move in price or fifty basis points on the rate does to the return. Computed at the baseline assumption set, not at whatever you have set the calculator to — it is a fixed reference.

Sensitivity — cash-on-cash by price and rate

Every other assumption held at the baseline set. A fixed reference, not tied to the calculator above. Estimates.

Cash-on-cash return by purchase price and interest rate
Price \ Rate5.75%6.25%6.75%7.25%7.75%
$353,500−8%-2.8%-3.8%-4.9%-6.0%-7.1%
$368,500−4%-3.4%-4.5%-5.6%-6.7%-7.8%
$384,000ask-4.1%-5.1%-6.2%-7.3%-8.4%
$399,500+4%-4.7%-5.7%-6.8%-7.9%-9.0%
$414,500+8%-5.2%-6.2%-7.3%-8.4%-9.5%

Cash-on-cash-9.5% → -2.8%

What to check before you commit

  • HVAC

    Condenser installed 2020, 6 years old. Inside normal service life for this climate, so the CapEx reserve carries it rather than a year-one line item.

  • Roof

    Roof dates to 2017, 9 years old — inside the window most carriers will write without a surcharge.

  • Flood

    FEMA Zone X. Outside the mapped special flood hazard area; a lender will not require separate flood coverage.

  • Water allocation

    Served by City of Phoenix. Long-run Colorado River and Central Arizona Project allocation is a genuine risk to price on the metro’s growth edges over a 10-to-20 year hold. It is a discount-rate question, not a next-quarter question.

  • No HOA

    No association. Nothing constrains rental use at the community level, and there is no fixed monthly charge in the expense line.