Panel vintageSeptember 1, 202653 synthetic assetsDemonstration data — no real listings, no addresses
Parcel
Contact the desk

STM-02

South Mountain · Phoenix, AZ 85042 · Single-family

ActiveSingle-familyBuilt 1992
Asking
$429,000
Est. rent / mo
$2,180
Est. cap rate
3.04%
Est. cash-on-cash
-10.18%
Est. DSCR
0.52
Rent / price
0.508%
$ / sq ft
$266
Est. cash flow / mo
-$1,001

At the baseline set: 25% down, 6.75%, 30-year amortisation. Estimates.

Representative stock photograph — painted stucco ranch elevation with a barrel-tile roof and mature mesquite. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.
Representative stock photograph — renovated kitchen with quartz counters and vinyl plank flooring. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.
Representative stock photograph — fenced rear yard with a rectangular pool and travertine deck. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.
Representative stock photograph — vacant living area with vinyl plank flooring and a slider to the patio. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.
Representative stock photograph — renovated bathroom with a tiled tub surround. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.

Representative stock photography of Phoenix-metro residential product. These are not photographs of this asset — there is no such asset. This panel publishes a code and a submarket and nothing finer, because a plausible house number on a real street is a real house, and putting an invented price under a photograph of one is the thing this whole demonstration exists to avoid.

The read

Preserve-adjacent with an HOA. Pool, HOA and a 2015 condenser together account for most of the gap between this row and the submarket cap-rate median.

  • Pool
  • Vaulted ceilings
  • Mountain preserve outlook
  • HOA $58/mo

Facts

Physical
Property typeSingle-family
Units1
Bedrooms / bathrooms3 / 2
Living area1,610 sq ft
Lot9,147 sq ft
Year built1992 (34 yrs)
Stories1
Parking2-car garage
Panel codeSTM-02
LocationSouth Mountain, Phoenix 85042
Carry — estimated
Property tax / yr$2,490
Insurance / yr$2,130
HOA / mo$58
Other fixed / yr$1,320
Total est. operating / yr$11,554
HVAC installed2015
Roof installed2016
Water providerCity of Phoenix
FEMA flood zoneZone X

Underwrite it

Every figure below recomputes as you move an input. Nothing is rounded until it is printed, and operating expenses never include debt service — that separation is what makes the cap rate a property of the building and the cash-on-cash a property of your deal. All outputs are estimates.

Purchase & financing
Income
Operating expenses

Monthly cash flow

−$1,001

after debt service, before tax

Cap rate

3.04%

NOI ÷ purchase price

Cash-on-cash

-10.18%

cash flow ÷ cash invested

DSCR

0.52

NOI ÷ annual debt service

Where the gross rent goes

  • Vacancy$1,570
  • Operating$11,554
  • Debt service$25,042
  • Cash flow$0
Annual income statement — estimated
Gross scheduled income$26,160
Less vacancy & credit loss−$1,570
Effective gross income$24,590
Less fixed operating−$6,636
Less variable operating−$4,918
Net operating income$13,036
Less annual debt service−$25,042
Pre-tax cash flow-$12,006
Loan amount$321,750
Monthly principal & interest$2,087
Cash invested$117,975
Operating expense ratio47.0%
Break-even occupancy139.9%
Gross rent multiplier16.4
Rent-to-price ratio0.508%

Estimated figures produced by a model from the assumptions on the left. Not an offer, an appraisal, a loan quote or investment advice. Taxes, insurance and operating expenses are estimates; verify each before you commit capital.

What it would have to cost

The asking price against three solved thresholds

Rent and every operating line held exactly as stated; only the purchase price moves. Each mark is the price that solves one condition. Nothing here is a price history: this asset has none, and inventing one would be the easiest dishonest thing on the page.

Solved prices, holding rent and operating expenses fixed. At the asking price this asset computes to a 3.04% cap rate, -10.18% cash-on-cash and a DSCR of 0.52.
ConditionPricevs askWhat it means
Current asking price$429,000—The number on the panel. Everything below is measured against it.
Submarket median cap (4.13%)$315,500−26.5%the price at which this asset yields what its submarket already yields

Asking price carried on the submarket index

The current asking price projected backwards on the South Mountain median-price index. Arithmetic on two synthetic series — not an appraisal, not a price history and not a record of any transaction.

Comparables

Rent is compared per unit, which is the only fair basis across a house and a fourplex. The subject sits 0.9% above the median of its five closest comparables.

Monthly rent per unit

Drawn from the panel itself, ranked by product family, unit size, bedroom count and proximity at the resolution this data has: same submarket, then same city.

  • STM-02Subjectsubject · 3/2 · 1,610 sq ft/unit
    $2,180
  • STM-03Same submarket · 3/2 · 1,355 sq ft/unit
    $1,990
  • LVN-04Same city · 3/2 · 1,622 sq ft/unit
    $2,095
  • SNY-01Same city · 3/2 · 1,595 sq ft/unit
    $2,260
  • DVY-03Same city · 3/2 · 1,540 sq ft/unit
    $2,160
  • ENC-01Same city · 3/2 · 1,690 sq ft/unit
    $2,650
Table
Monthly rent per unit — full data. Drawn from the panel itself, ranked by product family, unit size, bedroom count and proximity at the resolution this data has: same submarket, then same city.
ComparableDetailRent / unit / mo
STM-02 (subject)subject · 3/2 · 1,610 sq ft/unit$2,180
STM-03Same submarket · 3/2 · 1,355 sq ft/unit$1,990
LVN-04Same city · 3/2 · 1,622 sq ft/unit$2,095
SNY-01Same city · 3/2 · 1,595 sq ft/unit$2,260
DVY-03Same city · 3/2 · 1,540 sq ft/unit$2,160
ENC-01Same city · 3/2 · 1,690 sq ft/unit$2,650
Price comparables — 4 nearest assets of the same product type
AssetSubmarketProximityAskSq ft$ / sq ft
STM-02 SubjectSouth Mountain—$429,0001,610$266
STM-03South MountainSame submarket$336,0001,355$248
STM-01South MountainSame submarket$384,0001,745$220
DVY-03Deer ValleySame city$408,0001,540$265
MRV-02MaryvaleSame city$289,0001,092$265

Sensitivity

What a five-percent move in price or fifty basis points on the rate does to the return. Computed at the baseline assumption set, not at whatever you have set the calculator to — it is a fixed reference.

Sensitivity — cash-on-cash by price and rate

Every other assumption held at the baseline set. A fixed reference, not tied to the calculator above. Estimates.

Cash-on-cash return by purchase price and interest rate
Price \ Rate5.75%6.25%6.75%7.25%7.75%
$394,500−8%-7.1%-8.1%-9.2%-10.3%-11.4%
$412,000−4%-7.6%-8.6%-9.7%-10.8%-11.9%
$429,000ask-8.0%-9.1%-10.2%-11.3%-12.4%
$446,000+4%-8.5%-9.5%-10.6%-11.7%-12.8%
$463,500+8%-8.9%-9.9%-11.0%-12.1%-13.2%

Cash-on-cash-13.2% → -7.1%

What to check before you commit

  • HVAC

    Condenser installed 2015, 11 years old. Inside normal service life for this climate, so the CapEx reserve carries it rather than a year-one line item.

  • Roof

    Roof dates to 2016, 10 years old — inside the window most carriers will write without a surcharge.

  • Flood

    FEMA Zone X. Outside the mapped special flood hazard area; a lender will not require separate flood coverage.

  • Water allocation

    Served by City of Phoenix. Long-run Colorado River and Central Arizona Project allocation is a genuine risk to price on the metro’s growth edges over a 10-to-20 year hold. It is a discount-rate question, not a next-quarter question.

  • HOA

    $58 a month, $696 a year, payable whether or not the unit is occupied. Read the CC&Rs for rental caps and minimum lease terms before you underwrite a lease-up.