Panel vintageSeptember 1, 202653 synthetic assetsDemonstration data — no real listings, no addresses
Parcel
Contact the desk

EMS-01

East Mesa · Mesa, AZ 85209 · Single-family

ActiveSingle-familyBuilt 1998
Asking
$392,000
Est. rent / mo
$2,115
Est. cap rate
3.52%
Est. cash-on-cash
-8.44%
Est. DSCR
0.60
Rent / price
0.540%
$ / sq ft
$225
Est. cash flow / mo
-$758

At the baseline set: 25% down, 6.75%, 30-year amortisation. Estimates.

Representative stock photograph — two-storey tract elevation with stone veneer and a wide driveway. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.
Representative stock photograph — renovated kitchen with quartz counters and vinyl plank flooring. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.
Representative stock photograph — vacant living area with vinyl plank flooring and a slider to the patio. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.
Representative stock photograph — renovated bathroom with a tiled tub surround. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.
Representative stock photograph — exterior condenser units on a gravel pad. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.

Representative stock photography of Phoenix-metro residential product. These are not photographs of this asset — there is no such asset. This panel publishes a code and a submarket and nothing finer, because a plausible house number on a real street is a real house, and putting an invented price under a photograph of one is the thing this whole demonstration exists to avoid.

The read

East Mesa carries the highest inventory in the panel. Read a wide asking spread here as a supply signal, not a property signal — the house itself is unremarkable 1998 tract, and that is the point.

  • HOA $95/mo
  • Community pool
  • North/south exposure

Facts

Physical
Property typeSingle-family
Units1
Bedrooms / bathrooms3 / 2
Living area1,740 sq ft
Lot6,534 sq ft
Year built1998 (28 yrs)
Stories1
Parking2-car garage
Panel codeEMS-01
LocationEast Mesa, Mesa 85209
Carry — estimated
Property tax / yr$2,040
Insurance / yr$1,760
HOA / mo$95
Other fixed / yr$360
Total est. operating / yr$10,071
HVAC installed2016
Roof installed2018
Water providerCity of Mesa
FEMA flood zoneZone X

Underwrite it

Every figure below recomputes as you move an input. Nothing is rounded until it is printed, and operating expenses never include debt service — that separation is what makes the cap rate a property of the building and the cash-on-cash a property of your deal. All outputs are estimates.

Purchase & financing
Income
Operating expenses

Monthly cash flow

−$758

after debt service, before tax

Cap rate

3.52%

NOI ÷ purchase price

Cash-on-cash

-8.44%

cash flow ÷ cash invested

DSCR

0.60

NOI ÷ annual debt service

Where the gross rent goes

  • Vacancy$1,523
  • Operating$10,071
  • Debt service$22,883
  • Cash flow$0
Annual income statement — estimated
Gross scheduled income$25,380
Less vacancy & credit loss−$1,523
Effective gross income$23,857
Less fixed operating−$5,300
Less variable operating−$4,771
Net operating income$13,786
Less annual debt service−$22,883
Pre-tax cash flow-$9,097
Loan amount$294,000
Monthly principal & interest$1,907
Cash invested$107,800
Operating expense ratio42.2%
Break-even occupancy129.8%
Gross rent multiplier15.4
Rent-to-price ratio0.540%

Estimated figures produced by a model from the assumptions on the left. Not an offer, an appraisal, a loan quote or investment advice. Taxes, insurance and operating expenses are estimates; verify each before you commit capital.

What it would have to cost

The asking price against three solved thresholds

Rent and every operating line held exactly as stated; only the purchase price moves. Each mark is the price that solves one condition. Nothing here is a price history: this asset has none, and inventing one would be the easiest dishonest thing on the page.

Solved prices, holding rent and operating expenses fixed. At the asking price this asset computes to a 3.52% cap rate, -8.44% cash-on-cash and a DSCR of 0.60.
ConditionPricevs askWhat it means
Current asking price$392,000—The number on the panel. Everything below is measured against it.
DSCR 1.00$236,000−39.8%net operating income exactly covers the mortgage; cash flow is zero
Submarket median cap (3.52%)$391,500−0.1%the price at which this asset yields what its submarket already yields
Leverage turns (5.84%)$236,000−39.8%above this cap rate the loan adds to the return instead of subtracting from it

Asking price carried on the submarket index

The current asking price projected backwards on the East Mesa median-price index. Arithmetic on two synthetic series — not an appraisal, not a price history and not a record of any transaction.

Comparables

Rent is compared per unit, which is the only fair basis across a house and a fourplex. The subject sits 4.3% below the median of its five closest comparables.

Monthly rent per unit

Drawn from the panel itself, ranked by product family, unit size, bedroom count and proximity at the resolution this data has: same submarket, then same city.

  • EMS-01Subjectsubject · 3/2 · 1,740 sq ft/unit
    $2,115
  • WMS-02Same city · 3/2 · 1,465 sq ft/unit
    $2,010
  • WMS-01Same city · 3/2 · 1,310 sq ft/unit
    $1,905
  • EMS-03Same submarket · 4/3 · 2,280 sq ft/unit
    $2,470
  • LVN-03Elsewhere in metro · 3/2 · 1,780 sq ft/unit
    $2,210
  • CHW-02Elsewhere in metro · 3/2 · 1,780 sq ft/unit
    $2,380
Table
Monthly rent per unit — full data. Drawn from the panel itself, ranked by product family, unit size, bedroom count and proximity at the resolution this data has: same submarket, then same city.
ComparableDetailRent / unit / mo
EMS-01 (subject)subject · 3/2 · 1,740 sq ft/unit$2,115
WMS-02Same city · 3/2 · 1,465 sq ft/unit$2,010
WMS-01Same city · 3/2 · 1,310 sq ft/unit$1,905
EMS-03Same submarket · 4/3 · 2,280 sq ft/unit$2,470
LVN-03Elsewhere in metro · 3/2 · 1,780 sq ft/unit$2,210
CHW-02Elsewhere in metro · 3/2 · 1,780 sq ft/unit$2,380
Price comparables — 4 nearest assets of the same product type
AssetSubmarketProximityAskSq ft$ / sq ft
EMS-01 SubjectEast Mesa—$392,0001,740$225
EMS-03East MesaSame submarket$448,0002,280$196
WMS-02West MesaSame city$349,0001,465$238
WMS-01West MesaSame city$318,0001,310$243
AVD-03AvondaleElsewhere in metro$324,0001,425$227

Sensitivity

What a five-percent move in price or fifty basis points on the rate does to the return. Computed at the baseline assumption set, not at whatever you have set the calculator to — it is a fixed reference.

Sensitivity — cash-on-cash by price and rate

Every other assumption held at the baseline set. A fixed reference, not tied to the calculator above. Estimates.

Cash-on-cash return by purchase price and interest rate
Price \ Rate5.75%6.25%6.75%7.25%7.75%
$360,500−8%-5.2%-6.2%-7.3%-8.4%-9.5%
$376,500−4%-5.8%-6.8%-7.9%-9.0%-10.1%
$392,000ask-6.3%-7.4%-8.4%-9.5%-10.7%
$407,500+4%-6.8%-7.8%-8.9%-10.0%-11.1%
$423,500+8%-7.3%-8.3%-9.4%-10.5%-11.6%

Cash-on-cash-11.6% → -5.2%

What to check before you commit

  • HVAC

    Condenser installed 2016, 10 years old. Inside normal service life for this climate, so the CapEx reserve carries it rather than a year-one line item.

  • Roof

    Roof dates to 2018, 8 years old — inside the window most carriers will write without a surcharge.

  • Flood

    FEMA Zone X. Outside the mapped special flood hazard area; a lender will not require separate flood coverage.

  • Water allocation

    Served by City of Mesa. Long-run Colorado River and Central Arizona Project allocation is a genuine risk to price on the metro’s growth edges over a 10-to-20 year hold. It is a discount-rate question, not a next-quarter question.

  • HOA

    $95 a month, $1,140 a year, payable whether or not the unit is occupied. Read the CC&Rs for rental caps and minimum lease terms before you underwrite a lease-up.