Panel vintageSeptember 1, 202653 synthetic assetsDemonstration data — no real listings, no addresses
Parcel
Contact the desk

DVY-02

Deer Valley · Phoenix, AZ 85027 · Single-family

ActiveSingle-familyBuilt 2003
Asking
$489,000
Est. rent / mo
$2,580
Est. cap rate
3.25%
Est. cash-on-cash
-9.41%
Est. DSCR
0.56
Rent / price
0.528%
$ / sq ft
$212
Est. cash flow / mo
-$1,055

At the baseline set: 25% down, 6.75%, 30-year amortisation. Estimates.

Representative stock photograph — two-storey tract elevation with stone veneer and a wide driveway. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.
Representative stock photograph — renovated kitchen with quartz counters and vinyl plank flooring. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.
Representative stock photograph — fenced rear yard with a rectangular pool and travertine deck. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.
Representative stock photograph — vacant living area with vinyl plank flooring and a slider to the patio. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.
Representative stock photograph — renovated bathroom with a tiled tub surround. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.

Representative stock photography of Phoenix-metro residential product. These are not photographs of this asset — there is no such asset. This panel publishes a code and a submarket and nothing finer, because a plausible house number on a real street is a real house, and putting an invented price under a photograph of one is the thing this whole demonstration exists to avoid.

The read

Three-car garage and a pool. Both raise the achievable rent and both raise the expense line; the net is a slightly thinner yield than the plan without them.

  • Pool
  • Three-car garage
  • HOA $71/mo
  • Extended patio

Facts

Physical
Property typeSingle-family
Units1
Bedrooms / bathrooms4 / 3
Living area2,310 sq ft
Lot8,276 sq ft
Year built2003 (23 yrs)
Stories2
Parking3-car garage
Panel codeDVY-02
LocationDeer Valley, Phoenix 85027
Carry — estimated
Property tax / yr$2,840
Insurance / yr$2,380
HOA / mo$71
Other fixed / yr$1,320
Total est. operating / yr$13,212
HVAC installed2018
Roof installed2019
Water providerCity of Phoenix
FEMA flood zoneZone X

Underwrite it

Every figure below recomputes as you move an input. Nothing is rounded until it is printed, and operating expenses never include debt service — that separation is what makes the cap rate a property of the building and the cash-on-cash a property of your deal. All outputs are estimates.

Purchase & financing
Income
Operating expenses

Monthly cash flow

−$1,055

after debt service, before tax

Cap rate

3.25%

NOI ÷ purchase price

Cash-on-cash

-9.41%

cash flow ÷ cash invested

DSCR

0.56

NOI ÷ annual debt service

Where the gross rent goes

  • Vacancy$1,858
  • Operating$13,212
  • Debt service$28,545
  • Cash flow$0
Annual income statement — estimated
Gross scheduled income$30,960
Less vacancy & credit loss−$1,858
Effective gross income$29,102
Less fixed operating−$7,392
Less variable operating−$5,820
Net operating income$15,890
Less annual debt service−$28,545
Pre-tax cash flow-$12,655
Loan amount$366,750
Monthly principal & interest$2,379
Cash invested$134,475
Operating expense ratio45.4%
Break-even occupancy134.9%
Gross rent multiplier15.8
Rent-to-price ratio0.528%

Estimated figures produced by a model from the assumptions on the left. Not an offer, an appraisal, a loan quote or investment advice. Taxes, insurance and operating expenses are estimates; verify each before you commit capital.

What it would have to cost

The asking price against three solved thresholds

Rent and every operating line held exactly as stated; only the purchase price moves. Each mark is the price that solves one condition. Nothing here is a price history: this asset has none, and inventing one would be the easiest dishonest thing on the page.

Solved prices, holding rent and operating expenses fixed. At the asking price this asset computes to a 3.25% cap rate, -9.41% cash-on-cash and a DSCR of 0.56.
ConditionPricevs askWhat it means
Current asking price$489,000—The number on the panel. Everything below is measured against it.
DSCR 1.00$272,000−44.4%net operating income exactly covers the mortgage; cash flow is zero
Submarket median cap (3.60%)$441,500−9.7%the price at which this asset yields what its submarket already yields
Leverage turns (5.84%)$272,000−44.4%above this cap rate the loan adds to the return instead of subtracting from it

Asking price carried on the submarket index

The current asking price projected backwards on the Deer Valley median-price index. Arithmetic on two synthetic series — not an appraisal, not a price history and not a record of any transaction.

Comparables

Rent is compared per unit, which is the only fair basis across a house and a fourplex. The subject sits 7.7% above the median of its five closest comparables.

Monthly rent per unit

Drawn from the panel itself, ranked by product family, unit size, bedroom count and proximity at the resolution this data has: same submarket, then same city.

  • DVY-02Subjectsubject · 4/3 · 2,310 sq ft/unit
    $2,580
  • DVY-01Same submarket · 4/2 · 1,960 sq ft/unit
    $2,420
  • LVN-01Same city · 4/3 · 2,185 sq ft/unit
    $2,395
  • STM-01Same city · 4/2 · 1,745 sq ft/unit
    $2,240
  • EMS-03Elsewhere in metro · 4/3 · 2,280 sq ft/unit
    $2,470
  • BKY-01Elsewhere in metro · 4/3 · 2,260 sq ft/unit
    $2,140
Table
Monthly rent per unit — full data. Drawn from the panel itself, ranked by product family, unit size, bedroom count and proximity at the resolution this data has: same submarket, then same city.
ComparableDetailRent / unit / mo
DVY-02 (subject)subject · 4/3 · 2,310 sq ft/unit$2,580
DVY-01Same submarket · 4/2 · 1,960 sq ft/unit$2,420
LVN-01Same city · 4/3 · 2,185 sq ft/unit$2,395
STM-01Same city · 4/2 · 1,745 sq ft/unit$2,240
EMS-03Elsewhere in metro · 4/3 · 2,280 sq ft/unit$2,470
BKY-01Elsewhere in metro · 4/3 · 2,260 sq ft/unit$2,140
Price comparables — 4 nearest assets of the same product type
AssetSubmarketProximityAskSq ft$ / sq ft
DVY-02 SubjectDeer Valley—$489,0002,310$212
DVY-01Deer ValleySame submarket$452,0001,960$231
DVY-03Deer ValleySame submarket$408,0001,540$265
MRV-03MaryvaleSame city$344,0001,608$214
STM-01South MountainSame city$384,0001,745$220

Sensitivity

What a five-percent move in price or fifty basis points on the rate does to the return. Computed at the baseline assumption set, not at whatever you have set the calculator to — it is a fixed reference.

Sensitivity — cash-on-cash by price and rate

Every other assumption held at the baseline set. A fixed reference, not tied to the calculator above. Estimates.

Cash-on-cash return by purchase price and interest rate
Price \ Rate5.75%6.25%6.75%7.25%7.75%
$450,000−8%-6.3%-7.3%-8.4%-9.5%-10.6%
$469,500−4%-6.8%-7.8%-8.9%-10.0%-11.1%
$489,000ask-7.3%-8.3%-9.4%-10.5%-11.6%
$508,500+4%-7.7%-8.8%-9.9%-11.0%-12.1%
$528,000+8%-8.2%-9.2%-10.3%-11.4%-12.5%

Cash-on-cash-12.5% → -6.3%

What to check before you commit

  • HVAC

    Condenser installed 2018, 8 years old. Inside normal service life for this climate, so the CapEx reserve carries it rather than a year-one line item.

  • Roof

    Roof dates to 2019, 7 years old — inside the window most carriers will write without a surcharge.

  • Flood

    FEMA Zone X. Outside the mapped special flood hazard area; a lender will not require separate flood coverage.

  • Water allocation

    Served by City of Phoenix. Long-run Colorado River and Central Arizona Project allocation is a genuine risk to price on the metro’s growth edges over a 10-to-20 year hold. It is a discount-rate question, not a next-quarter question.

  • HOA

    $71 a month, $852 a year, payable whether or not the unit is occupied. Read the CC&Rs for rental caps and minimum lease terms before you underwrite a lease-up.