Panel vintageSeptember 1, 202653 synthetic assetsDemonstration data — no real listings, no addresses
Parcel
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CHW-01

Chandler West · Chandler, AZ 85225 · Single-family

ActiveSingle-familyBuilt 2001
Asking
$512,000
Est. rent / mo
$2,540
Est. cap rate
3.24%
Est. cash-on-cash
-9.45%
Est. DSCR
0.55
Rent / price
0.496%
$ / sq ft
$229
Est. cash flow / mo
-$1,109

At the baseline set: 25% down, 6.75%, 30-year amortisation. Estimates.

Representative stock photograph — painted stucco ranch elevation with a barrel-tile roof and mature mesquite. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.
Representative stock photograph — renovated kitchen with quartz counters and vinyl plank flooring. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.
Representative stock photograph — vacant living area with vinyl plank flooring and a slider to the patio. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.
Representative stock photograph — renovated bathroom with a tiled tub surround. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.
Representative stock photograph — exterior condenser units on a gravel pad. Not a photograph of any asset in this panel.

Representative stock photography of Phoenix-metro residential product. These are not photographs of this asset — there is no such asset. This panel publishes a code and a submarket and nothing finer, because a plausible house number on a real street is a real house, and putting an invented price under a photograph of one is the thing this whole demonstration exists to avoid.

The read

Adjacent to the semiconductor and data-centre employment corridor. Rent growth expectation, not going-in yield, is the entire case for this row.

  • HOA $86/mo
  • Near semiconductor employment corridor
  • Loft
  • Community park

Facts

Physical
Property typeSingle-family
Units1
Bedrooms / bathrooms4 / 3
Living area2,240 sq ft
Lot7,405 sq ft
Year built2001 (25 yrs)
Stories2
Parking2-car garage
Panel codeCHW-01
LocationChandler West, Chandler 85225
Carry — estimated
Property tax / yr$3,020
Insurance / yr$1,930
HOA / mo$86
Other fixed / yr$360
Total est. operating / yr$12,072
HVAC installed2018
Roof installed2019
Water providerCity of Chandler
FEMA flood zoneZone X

Underwrite it

Every figure below recomputes as you move an input. Nothing is rounded until it is printed, and operating expenses never include debt service — that separation is what makes the cap rate a property of the building and the cash-on-cash a property of your deal. All outputs are estimates.

Purchase & financing
Income
Operating expenses

Monthly cash flow

−$1,109

after debt service, before tax

Cap rate

3.24%

NOI ÷ purchase price

Cash-on-cash

-9.45%

cash flow ÷ cash invested

DSCR

0.55

NOI ÷ annual debt service

Where the gross rent goes

  • Vacancy$1,829
  • Operating$12,072
  • Debt service$29,887
  • Cash flow$0
Annual income statement — estimated
Gross scheduled income$30,480
Less vacancy & credit loss−$1,829
Effective gross income$28,651
Less fixed operating−$6,342
Less variable operating−$5,730
Net operating income$16,579
Less annual debt service−$29,887
Pre-tax cash flow-$13,308
Loan amount$384,000
Monthly principal & interest$2,491
Cash invested$140,800
Operating expense ratio42.1%
Break-even occupancy137.7%
Gross rent multiplier16.8
Rent-to-price ratio0.496%

Estimated figures produced by a model from the assumptions on the left. Not an offer, an appraisal, a loan quote or investment advice. Taxes, insurance and operating expenses are estimates; verify each before you commit capital.

What it would have to cost

The asking price against three solved thresholds

Rent and every operating line held exactly as stated; only the purchase price moves. Each mark is the price that solves one condition. Nothing here is a price history: this asset has none, and inventing one would be the easiest dishonest thing on the page.

Solved prices, holding rent and operating expenses fixed. At the asking price this asset computes to a 3.24% cap rate, -9.45% cash-on-cash and a DSCR of 0.55.
ConditionPricevs askWhat it means
Current asking price$512,000—The number on the panel. Everything below is measured against it.
DSCR 1.00$284,000−44.5%net operating income exactly covers the mortgage; cash flow is zero
Submarket median cap (3.30%)$502,500−1.9%the price at which this asset yields what its submarket already yields
Leverage turns (5.84%)$284,000−44.5%above this cap rate the loan adds to the return instead of subtracting from it

Asking price carried on the submarket index

The current asking price projected backwards on the Chandler West median-price index. Arithmetic on two synthetic series — not an appraisal, not a price history and not a record of any transaction.

Comparables

Rent is compared per unit, which is the only fair basis across a house and a fourplex. The subject sits 6.1% above the median of its five closest comparables.

Monthly rent per unit

Drawn from the panel itself, ranked by product family, unit size, bedroom count and proximity at the resolution this data has: same submarket, then same city.

  • CHW-01Subjectsubject · 4/3 · 2,240 sq ft/unit
    $2,540
  • CHW-02Same submarket · 3/2 · 1,780 sq ft/unit
    $2,380
  • BKY-01Elsewhere in metro · 4/3 · 2,260 sq ft/unit
    $2,140
  • EMS-03Elsewhere in metro · 4/3 · 2,280 sq ft/unit
    $2,470
  • LVN-01Elsewhere in metro · 4/3 · 2,185 sq ft/unit
    $2,395
  • DVY-02Elsewhere in metro · 4/3 · 2,310 sq ft/unit
    $2,580
Table
Monthly rent per unit — full data. Drawn from the panel itself, ranked by product family, unit size, bedroom count and proximity at the resolution this data has: same submarket, then same city.
ComparableDetailRent / unit / mo
CHW-01 (subject)subject · 4/3 · 2,240 sq ft/unit$2,540
CHW-02Same submarket · 3/2 · 1,780 sq ft/unit$2,380
BKY-01Elsewhere in metro · 4/3 · 2,260 sq ft/unit$2,140
EMS-03Elsewhere in metro · 4/3 · 2,280 sq ft/unit$2,470
LVN-01Elsewhere in metro · 4/3 · 2,185 sq ft/unit$2,395
DVY-02Elsewhere in metro · 4/3 · 2,310 sq ft/unit$2,580
Price comparables — 4 nearest assets of the same product type
AssetSubmarketProximityAskSq ft$ / sq ft
CHW-01 SubjectChandler West—$512,0002,240$229
CHW-02Chandler WestSame submarket$468,0001,780$263
LVN-04LaveenElsewhere in metro$372,0001,622$229
AVD-03AvondaleElsewhere in metro$324,0001,425$227
DVY-01Deer ValleyElsewhere in metro$452,0001,960$231

Sensitivity

What a five-percent move in price or fifty basis points on the rate does to the return. Computed at the baseline assumption set, not at whatever you have set the calculator to — it is a fixed reference.

Sensitivity — cash-on-cash by price and rate

Every other assumption held at the baseline set. A fixed reference, not tied to the calculator above. Estimates.

Cash-on-cash return by purchase price and interest rate
Price \ Rate5.75%6.25%6.75%7.25%7.75%
$471,000−8%-6.3%-7.4%-8.4%-9.5%-10.6%
$491,500−4%-6.8%-7.9%-9.0%-10.1%-11.2%
$512,000ask-7.3%-8.4%-9.5%-10.6%-11.7%
$532,500+4%-7.8%-8.8%-9.9%-11.0%-12.1%
$553,000+8%-8.2%-9.2%-10.3%-11.4%-12.5%

Cash-on-cash-12.5% → -6.3%

What to check before you commit

  • HVAC

    Condenser installed 2018, 8 years old. Inside normal service life for this climate, so the CapEx reserve carries it rather than a year-one line item.

  • Roof

    Roof dates to 2019, 7 years old — inside the window most carriers will write without a surcharge.

  • Flood

    FEMA Zone X. Outside the mapped special flood hazard area; a lender will not require separate flood coverage.

  • Water allocation

    Served by City of Chandler. Long-run Colorado River and Central Arizona Project allocation is a genuine risk to price on the metro’s growth edges over a 10-to-20 year hold. It is a discount-rate question, not a next-quarter question.

  • HOA

    $86 a month, $1,032 a year, payable whether or not the unit is occupied. Read the CC&Rs for rental caps and minimum lease terms before you underwrite a lease-up.